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I got interested in this topic, after reading about Time Cycles from Murphy's book. Time cycle seems pretty much Fourier series analysis. Just to try it out, I took the monthly data for EURUSD for its entirety. First, this is the monthly EURUSD chart (x-axis is just data points). I take a Fourier Transform of this data, select the low-frequency components, and then Inverse Fourier Transform, to give this graph (red graph is the standard EURUSD Monthly data). The blue curve is showing an interesting cyclic pattern. It seems set to repeat a bullish wave. To make it cleaner, I pass the EURUSD monthly data through a Low-pass filter, set at cutoff frequency of 0.05 units (which is around 5 times the frequency step size), and then I get this graph. We are clearly seeing initiation of a bull run again. I was wondering if professionals consider this a reliable analysis of FX markets? All other forces of the market (ECB, Fed, rates, trade agreements/wars, Futures), they are perhaps unwittingly playing their part in helping this cycle evolve naturally? Or is this just a fluke?
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Forex market is open 24 hours a day. It provides a great opportunity for traders to trade at any time of the day or night. However, when it seems to be not so important at the beginning, the right time to trade is one of the most crucial points in becoming a successful Forex trader. The Forex market is a little odd in it’s opening hours. Unlike most financial markets that open around 8:00 am in the morning and close around 6:00 pm in the evening, Forex is open 24 hour per day. By the time traders in Tokyo go home after work, banks are not even open in New York, which operates during forex market hours est - from 8 a.m. to 5:00 p.m. Eastern Standard Time. Because the Forex market operates in multiple time zones, it can be accessed at any time. The forex market is closed for retail traders on weekends. The currency market closes on Friday 5:00 PM New York time (10:00 PM London time), when the New York session finalizes, and reopens on Sunday at 5:00 PM New York time (10:00 PM London time). Australia Daylight Savings Time begins at 3am Sunday 5 April. Forex Market Hours. Forex trading is available 24 hours a day from 9:00pm GMT (10:00pm BST) until 9:00pm GMT (10:00pm BST) on Friday, including most U.S. holidays. Please be advised of the potential for illiquid market conditions particularly at the open of the trading week.
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